CHANGES IN LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS FOR BREAST-CANCER IN A DUTCH CANCER REGISTRY

Objectives-To assess whether the long term survival of patients with b reast cancer has changed with time. Design-Population based descriptiv e study. Setting-Eindhoven Cancer Registry in south east Netherlands. Subjects-2O52 patients with first primary breast cancer diagnosed betw een 1955 and 1974. Main outcome measures-Overall survival and relative survival. Results-Overall survival was 35% (727 patients) after 10 ye ars, 21% (267) after 20 years, and 15% (25) after 30 years. The corres ponding relative survival rates were 43%, 34%, and 34%, respectively. Survival improved from 1955 onwards for all ages and all tumour stages , Improvement was observed in both overall and relative survival. Prog nosis was strongly related to the stage at diagnosis in the first 10 y ears of follow up but independent of stage after 10 years. Survival of patients still alive after 19 years became similar to that of the gen eral female population, Conclusions-Both short and long term survival improved considerably in all age groups. This improvement was most mar ked for patients who were diagnosed with a localised tumour. Patients who survive for 19 years may be considered cured,