De. Lilienfeld et Dp. Perl, PROJECTED NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASE MORTALITY AMONG MINORITIES IN THEUNITED-STATES, 1990-2040, Neuroepidemiology, 13(4), 1994, pp. 179-186
Between 1992 and 2040, the United States nonwhite elderly population i
s expected to grow from 3.3 to 14.1 million. In order to assess the im
plications of this increase on the mortality from neurodegenerative di
seases in the United States, we used Census Bureau population estimate
s to formulate projections of the annual number of deaths from neurode
generative diseases and from six comparison conditions (liver cirrhosi
s, colon cancer, lung cancer, cancer of the female breast, multiple sc
lerosis, and malignant melanoma), assuming that the United States dise
ase-age-gender-specific death rates for 1985-1988 remain constant betw
een 1990 and 2040. We find that neurodegenerative disease mortality in
creases by 281-524%, depending on the model of population growth used.
For the 'middle' population growth model, the increase in annual neur
odegenerative disease mortality is 373%. The major component of this i
ncrease is the rise in deaths attributed to dementia. For the six comp
arison diseases, the increases in mortality range from 130 (multiple s
clerosis) to 288% (colon cancer). Given the current level of underasce
rtainment of neurodegenerative disease mortality, particularly among m
inorities, and the conservative nature of the Census Bureau estimates
of future population, it is likely that these projections are underest
imates. The implications of these data are discussed.