PROJECTED NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASE MORTALITY AMONG MINORITIES IN THEUNITED-STATES, 1990-2040

Between 1992 and 2040, the United States nonwhite elderly population i s expected to grow from 3.3 to 14.1 million. In order to assess the im plications of this increase on the mortality from neurodegenerative di seases in the United States, we used Census Bureau population estimate s to formulate projections of the annual number of deaths from neurode generative diseases and from six comparison conditions (liver cirrhosi s, colon cancer, lung cancer, cancer of the female breast, multiple sc lerosis, and malignant melanoma), assuming that the United States dise ase-age-gender-specific death rates for 1985-1988 remain constant betw een 1990 and 2040. We find that neurodegenerative disease mortality in creases by 281-524%, depending on the model of population growth used. For the 'middle' population growth model, the increase in annual neur odegenerative disease mortality is 373%. The major component of this i ncrease is the rise in deaths attributed to dementia. For the six comp arison diseases, the increases in mortality range from 130 (multiple s clerosis) to 288% (colon cancer). Given the current level of underasce rtainment of neurodegenerative disease mortality, particularly among m inorities, and the conservative nature of the Census Bureau estimates of future population, it is likely that these projections are underest imates. The implications of these data are discussed.