WILL HIV BECOME A MAJOR DETERMINANT OF FERTILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

A widely used demographic model of fertility, based on the proximate d eterminants, is described. The model is fitted for three contrasting s ub-Saharan African countries, using data from the 1980s round of Demog raphic and Health surveys, to establish a baseline profile of fertilit y for the period immediately before any widespread behavioural changes in response to the spread of HIV can plausibly have taken place. Regi onal variations in the relative significance of the different proximat e determinants are noted, and considered in a discussion of the mechan isms through which HIV could influence future fertility levels. It is tentatively suggested that severe HIV epidemics are most likely to exe rt a down ward pressure on fertility. More empirical data are required to test this theory.