A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO RESIDENTIAL LOAD MODELING

A model of electric residential end-use is proposed for establishing t he load diagram of an area by a process of synthesis. The model follow s a ''bottom-up'' approach, allowing construction of the relative load shape of the area, starting from knowledge of its most relevant socio economic and demographic characteristics, Unitary Energy Consumption ( UEC) and the load profiles of individual household appliances. Several probability functions have been introduced in order to cover the clos e relationship existing between the demand of residential customers an d the psychological and behavioral factors typical of the household; t he model makes frequent use of the latter through a Montecarlo extract ion process. The model has been applied for the simulation of a reside ntial area where field measurements of power demand had been made at 1 5-minute intervals and a combined-mail survey had been conducted to in vestigate household energy usage. The paper reports the results of a c omparison between recorded and predicted load profiles.