RETROSPECTIVE VOTING AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS - THE CASE OF THE BUDGETDEFICIT IN THE 1988 ELECTION

According to theories of retrospective voting, voters hold an incumben t administration responsible for problems or achievements that occur d uring its term. During the Reagan administrations, the deficit was one such problem. In this article, die interplay between the deficit issu e and die voting decision is investigated. The major findings of this study are the following: (a) The deficit was a salient issue in 1988, and for many voters it was the most important problem facing die natio n; (b) voters recognized that die deficit was a Reagan-era phenomenon; (c) an individual's perception of which party was better able to solv e die deficit problem strongly influenced the vote; (d) many thought d ie Republican Party would better manage the deficit issue in the futur e. Thus Republicans suffered very little at the ballot box as a result of the issue. Future refinements of retrospective-voting theory must take into account this failure to hold the incumbent party accountable for problems encountered during its term.