THE MEASUREMENT AND INTERPRETATION OF EMPLOYMENT DISPLACEMENT

Three facets of worker displacement are investigated - definition, det ection and consequence. A definition of displacement is sought that pe rmits the identification of those who are truly at risk of adverse con sequences because of this event. The detection goal is to identify dat a elements in available administrative data sources that can be used f or this purpose. A consolidated database is used that represents three states in the US and seven industry sectors, which includes seven yea rs of quarterly employer/industry affiliation and earnings pairings. E stimated earnings losses are shown to be sensitive to the definition o f displacement that is adopted. Available data elements do not support the reliable prediction of adverse consequences associated with displ acement relative to earnings discontinuities that accompany other caus al definitions of unemployment.