Bg. Hunt et al., EXPERIMENTAL PREDICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR LEAD TIMES OF 12 MONTHS, International journal of climatology, 14(5), 1994, pp. 507-526
Interannual variability of present-day climate has been clearly linked
to the occurrence of large-scale sea-surface temperature anomalies, p
articularly in the Pacific Ocean. Prediction of such anomalies many se
asons in advance by using relatively simple, coupled oceanic-atmospher
ic models provides a basis for predicting the atmospheric climate over
the same period. This is achieved by inserting the sea-surface temper
ature anomalies predicted by the coupled model at appropriate time int
ervals into a global climatic model and integrating forward in time. P
rediction experiments for 1991 and 1992 have been conducted on this ba
sis using sea-surface temperature anomalies predicted for the Pacific
Ocean' Global and regional rainfall outcomes are presented here, altho
ugh the predictions are not expected to be valid for the whole globe.
Detailed results are given for Australia and southern Africa, which ex
perienced severe drought conditions in 1991 and 1992. Useful skill, wi
th statistical significance for predictions when substantial rainfall
anomalies occurred, was obtained for these regions, indicating the pot
ential utility of the method. Considerable scope exists for improvemen
ts in the technique presented here, particularly in the global climati
c model used, so that increasing accuracy should result as the techniq
ue is developed. Operational implementation of this method is essentia
lly straightforward.