A STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF STATE-LEVEL ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS ON THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION

Cross-sectional data are used to assess the effect of state-level econ omic conditions on state outcomes in the 1992 presidential election. T he analysis provides evidence on the role of macroeconomic variables i n models of national election outcomes and presents simulations to det ermine whether changes in economic circumstances might have reversed t he election's result. It is argued that self-interested voters are mor e likely to prefer a new president if they are experiencing unemployme nt or income losses, or if they fear that economic conditions may lead to their own unemployment or inadequate income growth. Altruistic vot ers may seek a change to improve the economic positions of others. Whe ther specified as the current unemployment rate or as recent real per capita income growth, states with subpar economic performances are fou nd to have significantly higher voter shares for Clinton. The simulati ons indicate that reasonable adjustments in state unemployment rates d o not reverse the election outcome, whereas more rapid personal income growth during the year prior to the election results in a Bush victor y