POPULATION VARIATION IN CAUSE OF DEATH - LEVEL, GENDER, AND PERIOD EFFECTS

The trends in 13 cause of death categories are examined with respect t o expectation of life, sex differences, and period effects while miscl assification of cause of death is controlled. The results suggest that as mortality declines, 1) the increasingly U-shaped age pattern of mo rtality is a period effect associated with the infectious diseases, 2) the risks of both overall infectious and degenerative causes of death decline, and 3) infectious disease mortality declines more in males, while degenerative disease mortality declines more in females. Finally , the model shows that some contemporary populations are approaching t he limits of reduction in mortality during infancy, childhood, and you ng adulthood. Past declines in the degenerative diseases, however, sug gest that mortality may continue to decline.