FERTILITY DECLINE IN PRUSSIA - ESTIMATING INFLUENCES ON SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND DEGREE OF CONTROL

Change in marital fertility in 407 Prussian Kreise from 1875 to 1910 i s modeled to depend on the gap between the number of desired surviving births, N, divided by child survival, s, and the number that would be born under natural marital fertility, M, given the age at marriage. S ome fraction of this gap is averted, depending on the propensity to av ert unwanted births, D. Although none of these components is observed directly, we can estimate each indirectly under strong assumptions. De cline in N/s accounts for twice as much of the decline in fertility as does an increase in D. Natural fertility rose during the period. Unwa nted births increased slightly, despite a tripling of births averted. The most important causes of decline in N were increases in female lab or supply, real income, and health workers. A rising level of educatio n is the most important cause of increasing propensity to avert births . Demand-side changes were important causes of the transition, but cha nges in readiness to contracept also were important, as was the intera ction of the two.