MARITAL-STATUS AND FERTILITY IN THE UNITED-STATES - WELFARE AND LABOR-MARKET EFFECTS

The incidence of marriage and the proportion of childbearing that occu rs within marriage have decreased sharply in the United States in the last several decades. This paper examines whether the probability that a woman is currently married and the number of children she has borne , as reported in the 1980 U.S. Census, are related to two identifiable factors: the variation in welfare programs across states (specificall y, AFDC and Medicaid benefits and AFDC-UP expenditures) or the variati on in the market wage opportunities available to women and to their po tential husbands. AFDC and Medicaid benefit levels are associated with fewer women being currently married. Medicaid benefits are related to lower fertility levels for both black and white women, whereas AFDC b enefits in cash and food are associated with lower fertility among whi te women ages 15-24. Those states that extend AFDC benefits to familie s with unemployed parents (in other words, fathers in intact poor fami lies) do not have significantly more women married or higher fertility rates, contrary to what might be expected from economic incentives. M en's market wages are associated with more frequent marriage and highe r fertility, whereas higher market wage opportunities for women have s ubstantial effects in the opposite direction, all of which are consist ent with standard models of gender specialization and the demand for m arriage and fertility.