PREDICTING THE RELIABILITY OF ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT

The use of reliability predictions in the design and operation of elec tronic equipment has been an evolutionary and very controversial proce ss, and over the past decade, reliability prediction methods have been a focal point for a flurry of books, papers, editorials, opinions, sp ecial sessions, and workshops. While it is generally believed that rel iability assessment methods should be used to aid in product design an d development, the integrity and auditability of the reliability predi ction methods have been found to be questionable; in that, the models do not predict field failures, cannot be used for comparative purposes , and present misleading trends and relations. This paper discusses th e role of reliability prediction and assessment in design, development , and deployment of electronic equipment; overviews the history of rel iability predictions for electronics; discusses the advantages and dis advantages of some current methods; and presents some of the key resea rch questions which need to be addressed.