TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT USING A DELPHI APPROACH - A JAPANESE-GERMAN COOPERATION

This article describes a joint project conducted from 1991 until 1993 by the Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (N ISTEP) and the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). Some first outcomes, and different alternatives on how to use the data for trend interpretation and priority setting, are de scribed. The Japanese Delphi survey is conducted every five years and was first undertaken in 1971. In 1992, NISTEP and ISI agreed on a join t project. About 3000 Japanese experts were asked to answer more than 1000 questions based on 16 different technological areas. With financi al aid from the Federal German Ministry of Research and Technology (BM FT) the Japanese fifth Delphi survey was replicated in Germany. The Ja panese questions were translated and more than 1000 German experts res ponded to the questionnaires and judged the possible technological dev elopment within the next 20 to 30 years. The aim of this joint project is to compare the Japanese and the German answers in order to analyse possible differences and to understand the cultural influences on tec hnology assessment.