ASSESSING THE RATE OF TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS USING HAZARD RATE MODELSOF RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES

This paper describes the use of hazard rate models for assessing emerg ing technologies. It suggests that on a global scale the decisions of researchers, in terms of their entrance, continuance, and exit from a field, can serve as an indicator of the rate of progress in the emerge nce of a new technology. The approach is demonstrated using the litera ture on magnetic bubble memory technology as a source of data to deter mine the contribution-spans of researchers. Survival and hazard functi ons are estimated based upon the experience of more than seventeen-hun dred researchers contributing to the field over two decades.