EVALUATING METHODS FOR DETECTING FERTILITY-CONTROL - COALE AND TRUSSELLS MODEL AND COHORT PARITY ANALYSIS

In their attempts to distinguish empirically between the innovation/di ffusion and adaptation views of fertility transition, researchers have pointed out that evidence of fertility control practised by a signifi cant proportion of women in pre-transition populations would render cl aims that fertility fell as a result of innovative behaviour less conv incing. This paper uses simulation techniques to evaluate the ability of two indirect measures of fertility control, Coale and Trussell's mo del (M & m) and Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA), to identify the presence or absence of fertility controllers, as well as to detect changes in the extent of control. We conclude that neither M & m nor CPA can be r elied on to identify accurately a minority of controllers in a populat ion of interest. These findings suggest the need for a reassessment of some of the evidence cited in the debate over alternative theories of fertility decline.