SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF PULP MANUFACTURE IN FINLAND TO THE YEAR 2010

A scenario analysis was performed of alternative methods of pulp produ ction in Finland up to the year 2010. The analysis included the effect s of changing to totally chlorine-free bleaching of kraft pulp (TCF pu lp), closure of the water cycles at kraft mill bleaching plants, and i ncreased use of recycled fibre in papermaking. Scenarios for total fig ures in Finland were evaluated anticipating four different courses in the use of new technology and the increasing use of waste paper and TC F pulp. The results revealed that the high investment rate in effluent management and air pollution control during the 80s and 90s will resu lt in a very significant decline in pollution from the Finnish forest industry before the year 2000. The technology needed to eliminate AOX would be very costly and would have no significant effect on pollution parameters other than AOX. Closing the water cycles at kraft mill ble aching plants would cut discharges of dissolved substances and nutrien ts from the pulp and paper industry to at most half of those achievabl e with external methods.