A CRITICAL PATH-ANALYSIS OF SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTIVITY

Critical path analysis is proposed as a framework for problems of scie ntific productivity. Scientific productions are critical path problems because a single failed step in a project is sufficient to ruin an ex periment or keep a paper from being published. For critical path proce sses, the probability of failure is a power function of the number of steps. Thus, project success is nonlinearly related to both the skill level and the number of sequential or critical path steps. A queuing m odel simulation of scientific production is presented. Results for sho rt and long productions are shown to match documented lifetime publica tion rates of the most prolific (high skill level) and of average scie ntists (lower skill level). In this model creativity may decrease prod uctivity by shifting the focus to more time consuming problems, increa se productivity if the creativity resolves bottlenecks or eliminates p roblem steps, or have no effect if technique (e.g., observational skil l) dominates the project's time budget. Sociological factors affecting productivity can also be integrated into the model. The model has the advantage that it can be tested against scientific diaries and by con structing time budgets and failure analyses of ongoing projects.