PRIME MINISTERS, PARTIES, AND THE PUBLIC - THE DYNAMICS OF GOVERNMENTPOPULARITY IN GREAT-BRITAIN

This article proposes and tests a model of British party support betwe en 1953 and 1987, including prime minister's popularity, economic fluc tuations, and short-term noneconomic factors. We argue that public eva luations of the prime minister (PM) have had an increasingly important effect on relative party popularity (''government lead''). We demonst rate that this enhanced link between PM popularity and government lead began in the 1960s, well before the Thatcher era. We also attempt to demonstrate that noneconomic factors (wars, scandals, etc.) exert indi rect effects on government lead through voters' evaluations of the pri me minister. The results of this test, however, are inconclusive. We d iscuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of Bri tish politics.