OVARIAN-TUMORS - PREDICTION OF THE PROBABILITY OF MALIGNANCY BY USINGPATIENTS AGE AND TUMOR MORPHOLOGIC FEATURES WITH A LOGISTIC MODEL

An attempt was made to predict the probability of malignancy of a give n ovarian tumor in a certain patient by using the age and simple morph ologic features of the tumor. A cohort of 959 patients with ovarian tu mors was analysed retrospectively according to the patient's age and t umor characteristics such as greatest diameter, consistency, bilateral ity and diagnosis as malignant (271 patients) or benign (688 patients) . All variables were entered unconditionally in a logistic regression. The presence of solid/multilocular elements has a 9.6-fold increased risk of malignancy, where a bilateral tumor has a 2.8-fold increase. S ignificant increase in risk of malignancy was observed in ages under 2 0 and over 40 years, as well as in tumors with a diameter larger than 9 cm. All variables were highly significant associated with the discri mination between benign and malignant. A formula including all variabl es has been developed so that the probability of malignancy can be est imated by a scientific calculator. In conclusion, simple, easily deter mined by ultrasound and reproducible criteria such as patient's age, t umor size, consistency and bilaterality were assembled in a logistic m odel in order to predict the probability of malignancy for a given ova rian tumor, in an individual patient.