THE PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF SERUM PROGESTERONE AND QUANTITATIVE BETA-HUMAN CHORIONIC-GONADOTROPIN IN EARLY HUMAN-PREGNANCY

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to determine whether serum progesterone, wi th or without quantitative beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, is predi ctive of pregnancy outcome within the first 8 weeks of gestation in as ymptomatic women. STUDY DESIGN: Asymptomatic patients at <8 menstrual weeks' gestation were prospectively evaluated. The enrollment protocol included history, physical examination, ultrasonographic confirmation , and blood sample collection for beta-human chorionic gonadotropin an d progesterone. The association between progesterone and beta-human ch orionic gonadotropin values and pregnancy outcome was determined by lo gistic regression analysis. A receiver-operator characteristic curve w as generated on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity of proges terone results. RESULTS: Seventy-four patients were evaluated in this study. The mean serum progesterone level for viable pregnancies was 22 .1 ng/ml, which was significantly greater than that for the nonviable gestations, 10.1 ng/ml (p < 0.001). A single progesterone level was pr edictive of pregnancy outcome (p < 0.001). The probability of an abnor mal pregnancy outcome with a serum progesterone level less than or equ al to 6 ng/ml was 81%. A single beta-human chorionic gonadotropin leve l did not contribute to the prediction of pregnancy outcome (p = 0.59) . CONCLUSIONS: Serum progesterone alone, within the first 8 weeks of g estation, is predictive of pregnancy outcome.