MODELS, MODELING AND MODELERS - AN APPLICATION TO RISK ANALYSIS

Risk analysis has become increasingly important with the emergence of new, unknown and potentially dangerous technologies. Risk analysis bui lds on the use of models. If the models are valid representations of r eality, they can be used to predict and thus also to minimize the risk s. Any model is, however, a simplification and a generalization which implies that it has only a limited region of validity. If a model in t he risk analysis process is used outside its region of validity it can introduce serious flaws in the actions on different risks. The use of deficient models actually poses the most serious threat to the validi ty of risk assessments. To understand the origins of deficient models, it is necessary to consider the modelling process and the people invo lved in using the models. Models in risk analysis are based on many as sumptions which have to be understood if erroneous interpretations are to be avoided. The paper considers theoretical foundations of risk an alysis, models used in risk analysis and the modelling process leading to these models.