A VEHICLE USE FORECASTING-MODEL BASED ON REVEALED AND STATED VEHICLE TYPE CHOICE AND UTILIZATION DATA

Structural equation models are developed that explain driver allocatio n and annual vehicle use in terms of characteristics of the household and its vehicle(s). Separate models are estimated for one-vehicle and multi-vehicle households using both observed and stated preference dat a from a 1993 survey in California. Results quantify how use decreases as vehicles age, and it is predicted that electric and other limited range vehicles will be used less than conventional fuel vehicles. In m ulti-vehicle households, shifts in use are detected between vehicles o f different ages, operating costs and fuel types.