Mi. Brookes et Rk. Butlin, ESTIMATES OF MALE DISPERSAL IN YPONOMEUTA-PADELLUS (LEPIDOPTERA, YPONOMEUTIDAE), THE SMALL ERMINE MOTH, BY MEANS OF SIMULATION, Heredity, 73, 1994, pp. 207-214
A model of male dispersal is described which simulates the observed re
captures from a series of mark-release-recapture experiments. The mode
l aims to obtain an unbiased estimate of the dispersal parameter, sigm
a, for males of Yponomeuta padellus (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae). Five
parameters, each considered to be potentially important in an analysi
s of the dispersal patterns of Y. padellus, were incorporated into the
model. Parameter values were varied individually in a stepwise fashio
n to create a large number of simulated data sets. The method of maxim
um likelihood was used to test the goodness of fit of each simulated d
ata set against the observed distribution of recaptures to determine t
he optimal combination of parameter values. Using these same parameter
values, the model was then modified by examining the movement of male
moths in the absence of traps to obtain an estimate of sigma. The 'be
st' estimate of sigma was found to be 2.9 m gen(-1/2), with an approxi
mate upper confidence limit of 6.4 m gen(-1/2). The results suggest th
at dispersal in Y. padellus is extremely restricted relative to the ar
ea occupied by the total population and that Y. padellus is characteri
zed by an extremely fine-scale population structure.