HIGH-SCHOOL EDUCATIONAL SUCCESS AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSTANCE USE - A PANEL ANALYSIS FOLLOWING ADOLESCENTS INTO YOUNG ADULTHOOD

In this investigation, two indicators of high school educational succe ss (grade point average and college plans) were examined to determine their influence on cigarette, alcohol, and illicit drug use during the transition to young adulthood. Panel data were obtained from the 1978 -81 Monitoring the Future nationally representative samples of high sc hool seniors. The sample for this analysis included 3,399 White respon dents (weighted cases) followed three to four years post-high school. Structural equation models that included background and mediating char acteristics were,developed and tested using LISREL VII. Consistent wit h a selection hypothesis, high school GPA had a negative indirect effe ct on post-high school substance use that operated largely via senior- year substance use. College plans during high school had a similar neg ative effect on post-high school cigarette use, but consistent with a differential-socialization hypothesis, they had a positive indirect ef fect on post-high school alcohol use that operated primarily via stude nt and marital status during young adulthood. College plans had no imp act on post-high school illicit drug use.