DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GLOBAL SUPPLY OF ARMS - OPPORTUNITY AND MOTIVATION

Likely trends in the supply side of the arms trade are examined, consi dering the opportunities and motives available to key actors and the c hanging international system that constrains their options. Among supp liers, the United States remains predominant, if somewhat more commerc ially than hegemonically oriented than in the past. Despite reassertiv e efforts and lower prices in the arms field, Russian export prospects are questionable, given uncertainties over budgetary investments, lag ging technology, and potentially unreliable parts production or supply . West European sales are likely to remain confined to niches, since t here still are no single unified European Union production and marketi ng mechanisms. China, the least predictable supplier, remains on an ec onomic arms sales push. The depressed market for third-tier suppliers seems likely to persist. The global move to restructure defense indust ries is likely to lead to a shift from overproduction of finished arms , with many dual-use products emerging instead.