THE DIFFUSION OF MILITARY CONFLICT - CENTRAL AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE IN1919-20 AND 1991-92

Although previous research has established the diffusion of interstate military conflict as a rare event, few in-depth studies have been mad e. This article is a modest attempt to specify some of the interaction processes and regional contexts through which interstate conflict dif fusion occurs. For this purpose a comparative analysis of individual c ases is undertaken with each case consisting of a military conflict an d a dispute in its vicinity. An examination is made of the sequence of events related to whether, and how, the military conflict might affec t the dispute, transforming it to a new military conflict. The cases a re drawn from the same region, Central and South-East Europe, for two different periods, 1919-20 and 1991-92, displaying an extremely high i ncidence of interstate conflicts. Comparing two hypotheses, one derive d from a realpolitik perspective and the other from a linkage approach , it was found that the linkage-related hypothesis is supported in all cases across both periods, whereas the realpolitik-related hypothesis is supported only in a few cases pertaining to one of the periods. Th e theoretical implication is a linkage perspective which may offer new insights about conflict diffusion among neighboring countries, as it turns attention from their security concerns to the interplay of intra - and interstate relations transcending national boundaries.