SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF LOCAL WIND CONDITIONS

Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models it has been shown that they, combined with models (either physical or statistical) taking lo cal effects into account, can be used to predict the wind locally bett er than the models commonly used today (as eg persistence). By ''local '' is meant at one distinct spot, as eg the location of a meteorologic al mast. The physical model of local effects takes the following into account: shelter from near-by obstacles, the effect of roughness chang es and the effect of the local orography. The large-scale flow is link ed to the surface flow by the geostrophic drag law, and the logarithmi c wind profile. The predictions are made up to 36 hours ahead. The mod el is tested on data from 50 meteorological stations scattered all ove r Europe.