DYNAMIC OF ASTHMA MORTALITY IN FRANCE - S EASONAL-VARIATIONS AND PEAKING OF MORTALITY IN 1985-87

In the face of an observed increase in asthma mortality since the end of the 70s an analysis of the time series of the deaths for the period 1979-89 was conducted; which shows a peaking of mortality between 198 5 and 1987. A different seasonal component of asthma mortality has bee n identified for the age group 5-34 and over 34 group. For the later, mortality was found to peak during winter and dropping to the lowest p oint in summer, well synchronised with the mortality due to respirator y infection. For the former, mortality usually peaks during summer and troughs during the winter, independently of the mortality due to resp iratory infection. A bimodal repartition of deaths was observed in the age group 5-34 with a main peak in summer (July) and a secondary peak in autumn (October). Modeling of the deaths series by season shows a dramatic rise in mortality during the years 1985, 1986 and 1987 affect ing both age groups. During these 3 years, the global over-mortality i s 21 %. The increase has affected all the seasons allowing for seasona l variations of each age group. Factors responsible for the death seas onality in each age group are discussed. The temporary action of a non -specific factor was proposed to explain the cross-sectional character of the mortality crisis in the population; namely the influenza epide mics during the 1985 and 1986 winters.