UNDERSTANDING CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS IN STOCKING RATE CHANGE OVERTIME

Decisions made by Texas ranchers over a 10 year period (1980-1990) con cerning stocking rate levels were dominated by perceptions about weath er. A regression model explained 64% of the variability in stocking ra te change over time, with the rainfall/drought variable explaining the majority of variability. As ranchers' perception of a positive rainfa ll effect increased, so did stocking rates, and vice versa. Although t he presence of absence of rainfall cannot be managed per se, proactive stocking decisions should include a strategy for adjusting stocking l evels in response to changing environmental conditions. Other factors with significant (alpha =0.05), albeit trivial, path co-efficients on stocking rate change were age, grazing rights (owned vs. leased), trad itional stocking rate factors, traditional grazing program factors, an d weed/brush information factors. Older ranchers (>65 years) and ranch ers who leased all of their rangeland tended to decrease stocking rate s over time. Rangeland operators indicated they considered ''improved livestock performance'' as the most important benefit from initiating a grazing program. Evidence also suggested that ranchers who rely on t heir neighbors for advice about weed/brush decisions are not benefitin g from the latest technology information. Adoption of economic factors (cost/benefits) for selection of weed/brush technology did not have a significant impact on stocking rates over the 10 year period.