A GLANCE INTO THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD CANNED TUNA TRADE

The fundamental rules which have been observed to govern the relations hips among participants in the world canned-tuna trade are described, and the developments which have occurred within the last two decades t hat relate to projected future trends are examined. These conclusions are then combined to project future developments of import to the vari ous interest groups involved. Two scenarios are considered: there is a n effective management regime, or there is no effective stock manageme nt. A case is made that catch growth will be slow, trends in prices wi ll be upwards, and the values thus generated will either be captured b y the fishery for division among its participants if there is an effec tive stock-management regime, or dissipated in excess catching capacit y if there is not. There will be winners and losers. They are identifi ed.