OVERPREDICTION OF ANXIETY, AND DISCONFIRMATORY PROCESSES, IN ANXIETY DISORDERS

The overprediction of anxiety phenomenon and its relationships with fe ar, dysfunctional and functional beliefs, and emotional experiences du ring confrontations with feared stimuli were investigated in two studi es. Study 1 investigated exposure in vivo exercises executed by anxiet y patients during treatment (n = 37). Study 2 investigated behavioural experiments executed by anxiety patients (n = 11) during cognitive tr eatment. In both studies patients rated various variables just before and immediately after their exercises. The results indicate that anxie ty patients tend to overpredict the level of anxiety they are going to experience. There is no evidence that this phenomenon is a statistica l artefact, caused for instance by a pre-test response style. There is also no evidence that the observed adjustment of incorrect anxiety pr edictions is a statistical artefact. A global negative emotional evalu ation of the experience appears to have an adverse influence on the re duction of anxiety predictions and on the reduction of fear. Fear, and its reduction after exposure in vivo or after behavioural tests, appe ars to be influenced by both anxiety predictions and dysfunctional bel iefs. Positive emotions and functional beliefs did not appear to play an important role. The interrelationships between these factors are co mprised in a path-model which describes how emotional and cognitive in formation yielded by disconfirmatory experiences influences changes in anxiety predictions and changes in fear. Unexpectedly, change in dysf unctional belief did not relate directly to change in fear, but only i ndirectly, via change in anxiety predictions. Theoretical and therapeu tical implications are discussed.