SIMULATION AND HINDCASTS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC-OCEAN INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

A general circulation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean with a high resolution equatorial region is forced with observed winds from 1961 t o 1993 to obtain a simulation of oceanic variability. Observed interan nual sea surface temperature anomalies are reproduced well in the cent ral equatorial Pacific, which is a region of strong variations in air- sea interaction. Combined principal oscillation pattern analysis of SS T, heat content and zonal wind stress anomalies leads to a dominant in terannual mode with a period of about 3 years. An empirical atmosphere model is constructed using the observed wind stress and the dominant simulated SST anomaly patterns. With the OGCM coupled to this statisti cal atmosphere, several hindcasts are made for the main recent ENSO ev ents. Cold events are reproduced reasonably well, warm events less wel l: in particular, the 1982/83 hindcasts failed to produce a warming.