LIMITS TO PREDICTABILITY IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC NOISE

Authors
KEEMAN R POWER SB
Citation
R. Keeman et Sb. Power, LIMITS TO PREDICTABILITY IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC NOISE, Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 46(4), 1994, pp. 529-540
Citations number
NO
Categorie Soggetti
Oceanografhy,"Metereology & Atmospheric Sciences
Journal title
Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography → ACNP
ISSN journal
02806495
Volume
46
Issue
4
Year of publication
1994
Pages
529 - 540
Database
ISI
SICI code
0280-6495(1994)46:4<529:LTPIAC>2.0.ZU;2-6
Abstract
A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO predi ction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic mo mentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictabili ty limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the ab sence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric m odel used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a tim e scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5-deg rees-C for the Nino 3 region.