THE HAZARD OF STARTING SMOKING - ESTIMATES FROM A SPLIT POPULATION DURATION MODEL

Understanding the determinants of the hazard of starting smoking is of great importance in developing policy to reduce the number of smokers . This paper develops a split population duration model of the decisio n to start smoking. Using data from the 1978 and 1979 Smoking Suppleme nts to the National Health Interview Survey, we find some evidence tha t lifetime educational attainment, gender, and race are important dete rminants of both whether and when the smoking habit is initiated. The study finds no evidence that higher cigarette prices would have a sign ificant impact on teenage decisions to pick up the smoking habit.