HAWKS, DOVES, AND CIVIL CONFLICT DYNAMICS - A STRATEGIC ACTION-REACTION MODEL

This paper develops a model of the escalation process of civil conflic ts. The model is a system of differential equations, based on a popula tion growth model structure. Unlike most models of this type, it treat s the state as a rational but binary actor consisting of hawks and dov es. The model reveals four underlying escalation dynamics which civil conflicts can take. Using these dynamics and the hawk-dove dichotomy, the model is analyzed to show when it is beneficial for a state or int ervener involved in a civil conflict to be hawkish or dovish in their strategy.