Conventional political wisdom holds that inclement weather on election
day reduces turnout, and helps elect Republican candidates. Analysis
of National Climatic Data Center weather records and National Election
Studies (NES) survey data for 1984, 1986, and 1988 refutes the latter
hypothesis: interaction variables based on various measures of partis
anship and election-day rainfall show no evidence of partisan differen
ces in the turnout-deterring impact of inclement weather. Furthermore,
rainfall does not significantly reduce the probability of voting for
the NES samples as a whole, but only among those respondents scoring l
ow on the standard NES civic duty indicator.