CONFLICT IN CONTEXT - ARMS TRANSFERS AND THIRD-WORLD RIVALRIES DURINGTHE COLD-WAR

I investigate the impact of superpower arms transfers on two enduring Third World rivalries. A time-series analysis suggests that Soviet and U.S. supplies to interstate rivals in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf are not parallel in their effects. Soviet transfers to Egypt and Syria exacerbated conflict in the Middle East, while U.S. transfers t o Israel show no such propensity. There is also some evidence that U.S . arms supplies to Iran under Shah Pahlevi may have had a dampening ef fect on the Iran-Iraq rivalry. An action-reaction dynamic is apparent in superpower transfers to both the Middle East and Persian Gulf, alth ough the reactive tendency was more pronounced in the U.S. policy. The se results lend credence to a conceptual framework that highlights the congruent security orientations of arms suppliers and recipients.