STATISTICAL MODELING AND PREDICTION OF LUNG-CANCER MORTALITY IN THE CZECH-REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK-REPUBLIC, 1960-1999

Background. The aim of the study was to analyse the pattern of lung ca ncer mortality from 1960 to 1989 and to predict lung cancer mortality for 1990-1999 for males and females aged greater than or equal to 30 y ears in the Czech and Slovak Republics. Method. The mortality pattern of lung cancer was examined and predicted using republic-age-period-co hort models. Results. Trends in lung cancer mortality were upward for both sexes over the study period. Tn the early 1960s, lung cancer mort ality in Slovak males was much lower than that in Czech males, but sin ce the late 1960s lung cancer mortality in males increased more rapidl y in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic. It was predicted that mortal ity due to lung cancer in Slovak males would exceed that in Czech male s during the last 5 years of the 20th century. Slovak female lung canc er mortality was lower than that for Czech females throughout the stud y period, and the trends in both republics were similar.