THE ASSESSMENT OF FREQUENCY ESTIMATES OF HAE-III-GENERATED VNTR PROFILES IN VARIOUS REFERENCE DATABASES

The likelihood of occurrence of 1964 Hae III-generated target DNA prof iles was estimated using fixed bin frequencies from various regional a nd ethnic databases and the multiplication rule. The databases general ly were from the following major categories: Black, Caucasian, Hispani c, Oriental, and American Indian. It was found that subdivision, eithe r by ethnic group or by U.S. geographic region, within a major populat ion group did not substantially affect forensic estimates of the likel ihood of occurrence of a DNA profile. As expected, the greatest variat ion in estimates for within-group estimates was among American Indian databases. Because the greatest variation in statistical estimates occ urs across major population groups, in most cases, there will be no un fair bias applying general population database estimates. Therefore, b ased on empirical data, there is no demonstrable need for using altern ate approaches, such as the ceiling approach, to derive statistical es timates. The current practice of using general population databases an d the multiplication rule provides valid estimates of the likelihood o f occurrence of a DNA profile.