PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF TRAVEL-TIMES IN GROUNDWATER MODELING

A Monte Carlo approach is described for the quantification of uncertai nty on travel time estimates. A real (non synthetic) and exhaustive da ta set of natural genesis is used for reference. Using an approach bas ed on binary indicators, constraint interval data are easily accommoda ted in the modeling process. It is shown how the incorporation of impr ecise data can reduce drastically the uncertainty in the estimates. It also shown that unrealistic results are obtained when a deterministic modeling is carried simulation for the generation of fields incorpora ting constraint interval data are discussed. The final results consist s of 95% probability intervals of arrival times at selected control pl anes reflecting the original uncertainty on the transmissivity maps.