ECONOMICS AND ELECTIONS - THE MEXICAN CASE

In Mexico's 1988 presidential election the PRI was seriously challenge d for the first time. Carlos Salinas de Gortari became president with only 50 percent of the vote. To what extent did deteriorating economic conditions hurt the PRI? Who benefited from the anti-incumbent mood? OLS regression is used to assess the influence of aggregate economic i ndicators on the percentage of vote for nonincumbent parties in presid ential elections since 1946, and it is found that declining economic c onditions benefit the Left.