DYNAMIC DATA SYSTEMS-APPROACH TO FORECASTING SUPPLY OF PETROLEUM-PRODUCTS IN THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI-ARABIA

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is playing a key role in the production of petroleum products. Accurate forecasting of the demand/supply of thes e products is very essential for proper planning of the refineries of the Kingdom. An overview of the various forecasting methods used for t his purpose is presented and a relatively new time series method, dyna mic data systems, is applied. Autoregressive moving average models are developed and used for forecasting. A number of statistical tests are applied to demonstrate that these forecasts are highly accurate and d ependable.