THE BRIGHT AND THE DARK SIDES OF TECHNOLO GICAL-FORECASTING

People depend upon technology, at work and in everyday life. Without o rganisational and technological inter vention in nature humankind woul d never have been able to maintain the population densities encountere d today or uphold an ethical claim to an individual livelihood in dign ity. At the same time, however, technology creates new risks. The exte nt to which the risks arising are balanced by the desired benefits oft en evades prediction since many consequences of the application of tec hnology are uncertain and are also judged ambivalently by the persons affected. Forecasts can only predict probable or possible developments , but cannot overcome the genuine uncertainty surrounding the future. For this reason assessment of the consequences of technology cannot re veal all negative effects, or even promise the certainty of a positive cost-benefit balance. Instead, it is the task of assessment of the co nsequences of technology to initially establish the potential positive and negative consequences according to the best available knowledge a nd on the basis thereof to harmonize the possibilities of modification s and conditions of introduction with the developers and users of tech nology. The most suitable approach utilizes discursive procedures in w hich scientists, manufactures, users, and other affected persons toget her have to assess the possible consequences.