Rm. Skitmore et al., HUMAN EFFECTS IN EARLY-STAGE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT PRICE FORECASTING, IEEE transactions on engineering management, 41(1), 1994, pp. 29-40
This paper describes a postal survey of UK quantity surveyors to relat
e human factors, such as experience and personality, to conceptual est
imating expertise. Composite variables were derived by factor analysis
and examined against estimates of average national prices for several
types of building. It is shown that expertise is very much of a proje
ct specific nature and does not extend in a simplistic way to projects
outside the defined domain and that estimators must exercise of great
caution when undertaking work even slightly outside their regular act
ivities. Different building types demand different emphasis and specia
l attention is drawn to the complexity of the project, the degree of s
ervices content, and particular sub-market conditions. The easiest pro
jects to estimate appear to be industrial (factories) and residential
(houses) with offices being the hardest, probably due to the wider var
iety of design and quality options in the latter. Knowledge and care a
re identified as the most crucial attributes of good estimators. A few
myths are also dispelled. Geographical location, for instance, was fo
und not to be a major issue. Similarly, there was no evidence of any '
'X'' factor whereby individuals can claim any mystical inborn talent.
The indications are that good estimators have exactly the same attribu
tes as good gamblers-they do their research selectively and thoroughly
, think carefully, and concentrate on what they know best.