MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER-RESOURCES INVESTMENT PLANNING UNDER BUDGETARY AND SOCIOTECHNICAL UNCERTAINTIES

An integration of Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and Integer Goa l Programming (IGP) modeling framework is proposed to handle problems of multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decisionmaking under budget ary and socio-technical uncertainties inherent in water resources inve stment planning. In the proposed SDP model probabilities of the fundin g levels in any time period that are generated using a subjective mode l are employed to handle budgetary fluctuations. This subjective model consists of historical data as a basic rate, functional relationship among inter-related parameters of the SDP model, scenarios of future b udget availability, and subjective inputs elicited from a group of dec isionmakers through a collective opinion technique. Application of the SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy that recognizes the possibility that actual funding received maybe less th an the anticipated and therefore the projects being implemented under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. In this integrated model, economic return of each level of investment decision together with it s associated project portfolio is determined by the IGP model based on goals and criteria preferences with explicit consideration to socio-t echnical uncertainty.