RISK-FACTORS OF END-STAGE RENAL-DISEASE AND SERUM CREATININE IN A COMMUNITY-BASED MASS-SCREENING

This study evaluated risk factors fur end-stage renal disease (ESRD) a nd the prognostic significance of serum creatinine levels in a communi ty-based mass screening. We used the registries of both community-base d mass screening and chronic dialysis programs. In 1983, a total of 10 7,192 subjects over 8 years of age (51,122 men and 56,070 women) parti cipated in a mass-screening program in Okinawa, Japan. Among them, ser um creatinine data were available for 14,609 participants (5,613 men a nd 8,996 women). During 10 years of follow-up, we identified 60 dialys is patients (29 men and 31 women) among this group. Logistic regressio n analysis on the risk of ESRD was performed to determine the signific ance of serum creatinine levels in comparison with other clinical vari ables. The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) was 5.31 (3.3 9 to 8.32) in men and 3.92 (2.88 to 5.34) in women when compared to ba seline serum creatinine levels of less than 1.0 mg/dl in women and 1.2 mg/dl in men. Diastolic blood pressure was not a significant predicto r of ESRD. Results demonstrated the prognostic significance of serum c reatinine in a community-based mass screening. Gender difference in th e incidence of ESRD was explained, at least partly, by differences bet ween clinical predictors and baseline serum creatinine levels.