Research on the risk of nursing home use has generally not distinguish
ed between risk for long versus short stays. This paper presents an an
alysis of data from the 1982-84 National Long-Term Care Surveys to ide
ntify characteristics of disabled persons that predicted one or the ot
her type of stay. Measures that are recognized to be strong predictors
of nursing home use in general, such as dependencies in activities of
daily living and cognitive impairment, were not significantly associa
ted with admission for short stays. Results from the multi-variate ana
lysis were also used to make projections of lifetime risk of long and
short stays. Approximately one-third of lifetime nursing home risk app
lies to stays of 90 days or less.