THE CHALLENGE OF FIRE PREDICTION

Fire, the oldest combustion problem, is a major cause of human sufferi ng and material loss, and yet our capabilities to predict its behavior for prevention and control is very limited. Efforts to improve fire s afety have often concentrated on improving fire protection systems and extending fire service rather than on fire research. However, we see that fire periodically overruns the traditional fire suppression metho ds, particularly when there are natural disasters as wildland fires af fecting urban areas, or earthquakes, or even when human errors or arso n take place in complex facilities, such as petro-chemical industries, large buildings, or fuel transport. What is needed is a better fundam ental understanding of fire initiation and development, which can then be applied during the design stage to minimize fire occurrence, rathe r than relying primarily on fire detection and suppression. The goal i s to bring our predictive capabilities to a point where fire models co uld be developed for use by the designers of buildings, urban developm ents, factories, transportation, and space habitats, allowing them to evaluate the fire safety of their designs, and improve them if necessa ry. Significant progress has been made during the last twenty five yea rs in fire prediction, but the question is whether we will be able to reach the above goal in the next quarter century.