MANAGING UNCERTAINTY - THE TROPOSPHERIC OZONE CHALLENGE

Although it has been over two decades since Congress passed the Clean Air Act of 1968, ozone in the lower atmosphere remains a serious envir onmental concern in the United States. Significant scientific progress has been made over the past three decades, yet many important uncerta inties remain unresolved. How to manage in a situation characterized b y these uncertainties is a major challenge that must be overcome to de velop an effective ozone abatement strategy. In this paper, we describ e a decision framework for evaluation of alternative ozone abatement s trategies. The framework, which embodies two major components-a simula tion module and a decision module-incorporates uncertainty in a dynami c decision-making process and enables evaluation of NOx and VOC contro ls on a systematic basis. We demonstrate the application of the framew ork through an illustrative analysis to provide insight into the value of flexible ozone abatement strategies in reducing the total cost of achieving air-quality goals and the tradeoffs between the timing and t he accuracy of additional information.