PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION EFFECTS IN VOTING

Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is on e of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 p residential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the endu ring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party i dentification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that th is effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective votin g more generally. Attitudes towards Reagan also had an indirect impact by affecting the net Bush-Dukakis candidate score; altogether the est imated impact of the Reagan effect in 1988 was to tum the vice-preside nt's predicted loss into his observed victory. Additionally, a success ion effect was detected in the 1988 nominating campaign, with Bush's p opularity over Dole benefiting from reactions to the Reagan administra tion. There is evidence of succession effects in other presidential el ections, particularly a Johnson effect in 1968.